Category Archives: Forecasting

Emergency Alert in Hawaii

Saturday morning at 8:07 a.m. people across the state of Hawaii got the same alert on their cell phones: BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT INBOUND TO HAWAII. SEEK IMMEDIATE SHELTER. THIS IS NOT A DRILL. My girlfriend and I got dressed in … Continue reading

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How Bad Was My US Election Forecast?

Pretty bad. I gave the Democrats a 70% chance of retaining the presidency back in January before we even knew who the nominees would be. I ascribed to a version of the argument that there was an “emerging Democratic majority”. I … Continue reading

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NonProphets Podcast

Three episodes of the new NonProphets Podcast are now available for download on iTunes and on Blubbry. Every week—give or take—Atief Heermance, Scott Eastman, and I talk about forecasting and look at questions from various public forecasting platforms. We’re calling ourselves “NonProphets” because good forecasting isn’t … Continue reading


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A Superforecaster on Superforecasting

Review of Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner The possibilities of history are far more various than the human intellect is designed to conceive.—Arthur Schlesinger, Jr.  (1) If I throw a ball in the air, I can say with rough confidence where … Continue reading

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