Here are some recent articles and media appearances.


“A Model for the Probability of Nuclear War” (with Seth Baum and Anthony Barrett). Global Catastrophic Risk Institute Working Paper 18-1 (2018).

Popular Media

“North Korea and America’s Second Summit.” The National Interest (February 2019).


“What are the Odds of Nuclear War?” The Future of Life (April 2018).

“The Apocalypse.” Here’s How I Think This Works (March 2017).